A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
